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Sunday, 9 November 2008

The Impact of the Special Votes

I sat down to work out how the special votes, which are yet to be counted, might impact the seats with the St Lague formula and saw David Farrar had already done it so I am going to be lazy and steal his post - I am tired, went to bed around 2am got up at 6am - Sherry had a One Day Event this morning, they start early, and Troggy bit me, so my arm hurts when I type... anyway, hat tip Kiwiblog, taken from What might happen on specials?

The allocation is:
National 59
Labour 43
Greens 8
Maori 3 (+2 overhang)
Future 1
Now who is most at risk from specials? They are the party that is in List Spot 120. And that is National.

The quotient for National is 951145/117 = 8129.4. And who is in spot 121? Labour with 706666/87 = 8122.6.

Very roughly if Labour pick up 600 more votes relative to National, then they get one more List MP, and National loses one. That is not at all impossible.

But could someone else grab it off National. The Greens have spot 124, being 134622/17 = 7918.9. They would need to gain an extra 3,600 votes (on top of their existing proportion of votes) from specials. That is a bit of an ask, but they have done well on special traditionally.

The next candidate on each relevant list is Conway Powell for National, Damien O’Connor for Labour and Kennedy Graham for the Greens.


  1. Troggy is my daughter Sheridan's horse. His proper name is Trogdor the Burninator (of YouTube fame).

    He had just finished "burninating the countryside" (the cross country course) and he tried to take a chunk out of my arm - he bites to be playful but he usually only uses his lips.

    Thankfully I was following proper equestrian safety rules (which I frequently don't when I am not riding) and had covered arms despite the heat so he didn't manage to break the skin - but I do have an awful egg on my arm.

  2. Hi folks, what about the Libertarian party, did they make any head way?

  3. The Libertarianz Party increased on last election by 13% to 0.05% of the total party vote. (Special votes are yet to be counted)


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